Q4 Performance Report

This one is a hard performance report to write but I started a process and I intend to continue it so I will push through

In my Q3 report I spoke a little about what my 2019 goals were and what I was looking to improve on. At that point it was going pretty well but I fell away in the 4th quarter and let some bad habits creep in.

I spent a chunk of October on holidays and away from screens and I managed my portfolio poorly during that time. From there I kind of spiralled and as mentioned took on some bad habits while chasing the losses that I took in October.

Now I could come up with plenty of excuses, the spec market topped in Sept (XEC), I was duped by pumpers, shorters, poor management but at the end of the day that would all be bullshit. What it comes down to is I made some poor decisions and didn’t employ good risk management. End of story

Positives to come from the quarter were that I managed to get myself refocused and back to what was working for me mid December and started seeing some more promising outcomes.

So a few lessons out of this are to be better with risk management. I can’t entirely eliminate making wrong calls, we all make them and always will, just need to manage them better

But some more subtle lessons are probably to make sure that I am being diligent and sticking to my plan but also to step away from markets if I am feeling tired or not committed, refresh and then come back when I am ready to attack it.

So my Q4 performance is below. October was my real blow out and then scrambling to repair from there. Was some decent size losses after that too but some of the Oct drops recovered which I didn’t benefit from because of the spiral

MonthOctoberNovemberDecember
Performance-8.45%-1.24%-1.78%
Total  -11.19%

I only started tracking month by month from May so can’t publish a full year but May to Dec is as follows:

MonthMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
Performance5.04%7.40%6.24%4.81%3.84%-8.45%-1.24%-1.78%

Full year result was +32%. It’s not a terrible number but I am a little disappointed. A +10% Q4 rather than a -11% would have been a pretty big swing and almost doubled my return for the year.

This is a bit of a double edged sword I guess. I made a reasonable gain, learnt some more lessons to try and put into practice, I have the benefit of knowing I could have done much better if I executed better (i.e something to work towards), but at the same time there is always the thought in the back of your head that’s not quite happy with the result.

The upside of writing my performance report is it consolidates the reflection I had already done into words. If we can’t be honest with ourselves about our failings then it is very hard to progress and get better in this game.

All in all ready to go again in 2020 and confident I can improve on last year. My 3 keys for the year ahead are super cliche but they are cliches for a reason.

  1. Discplined risk management
  2. Let winners run
  3. Execution, Execution, Execution

Good luck everyone, hope you all make some money this year.

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